Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1af5…86a0 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$25
politics 28% −$17
sports 16% −$17
crypto 12% −$8
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
world 3% −$1
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 63 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 110 -0.6% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.8%
all 136 -0.5% -10.0% 19% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage106d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $213 −$3 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $147 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $198 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $514 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $48 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $59 −$2 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $442 −$3 -1%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $109 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $52 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -3%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $52 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $355 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 03 $46 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $16 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $142 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $500 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $55 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $59 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $45 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $47 41m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 12h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 18h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 23h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $50 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 31h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 32h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 39h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $43 39h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $60 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $14 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $52 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.40 · official $46.40 (match) · 534 history records