Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aef…6370 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$4
other 27% −$2
politics 10% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +85.3% +67.6% 31% 12% -8.5%
≤90d 16 +85.3% +67.6% 31% 12% -8.5%
all 52 +25.6% +13.7% 54% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 4% -9.2%
10% +2.8% 4% -17.9%
15% -7.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -16.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage470d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $31 +$1 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $6 $0 -1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 10 $7 $0 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $4 $0 -4%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 07 $1 $0 -18%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $1 $0 -15%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 28 $12 $0 -3%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $23 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $11 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $34 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 24h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $15 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $10 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $21 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $31 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $34 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $34 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $9 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $7 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $22 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $10 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $32 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $4 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $24 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 39¢ $3 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $20 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records