Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ae4…fe94 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$5
other 21% −$4
sports 3% +$5
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.9% -6.0% 33% 33% -6.1%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.0% 29% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.0% 29% 7% -8.8%
all 34 -1.5% -10.8% 38% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -8.8%
10% -19.4% 3% -17.5%
15% -27.2% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage484d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 +$5 +12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $86 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $5 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $44 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 09 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 08 $5 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7? Jul 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Mar 20 $12 +$4 +39%
Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $48 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $44 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $36 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $3 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 31h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $2 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $17 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $44 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $43 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $42 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $42 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $8 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $8 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 4¢ $5 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $43 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $44 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $17 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.95 · official $48.09 (match) · 105 history records