Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1ae0…d45e other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$906 (+34%) realized +$915 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$218
7 days+$593
14 days+$751
30 days+$888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$825
sports 17% +$57
crypto 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +92.4% +74.1% 67% 67% +34.1%
≤30d 21 +36.9% +23.8% 52% 52% +29.2%
≤90d 21 +36.9% +23.8% 52% 52% +29.2%
all 21 +36.9% +23.8% 52% 52% +29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.8% 52% +29.2%
10% +12.0% 48% +16.8%
15% +1.2% 48% +5.5%
20% -8.8% 29% -4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$37 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized+$915
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage16d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $219 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $86 $83 −$3 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $57 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Perplexity have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $121 +$79 +65%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $36 +$104 +291%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $221 +$35 +16%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 +$167 +650%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $138 +$63 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$69 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $310 +$155 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$180 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $87 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $58 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $98 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $221 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 27h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $221 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $138 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $310 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 10d
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 11d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 15d
Will Perplexity have the highest private market valuation on June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.97 · official $569.97 (match) · 41 history records