trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +92.4% | +74.1% | 67% | 67% | +34.1% |
| ≤30d | 21 | +36.9% | +23.8% | 52% | 52% | +29.2% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +36.9% | +23.8% | 52% | 52% | +29.2% |
| all | 21 | +36.9% | +23.8% | 52% | 52% | +29.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +23.8% | 52% | +29.2% |
| 10% | +12.0% | 48% | +16.8% |
| 15% | +1.2% | 48% | +5.5% |
| 20% | -8.8% | 29% | -4.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 73¢ | 72¢ | $219 | $218 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 32¢ | 32¢ | $96 | $94 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $86 | $83 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 56¢ | 56¢ | $56 | $56 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $57 | $56 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $38 | $37 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $26 | $26 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Perplexity have the highest private market valuation on June 30? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-53%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | Jun 28 | $121 | +$79 | +65% |
| Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? | Jun 28 | $36 | +$104 | +291% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 27 | $221 | +$35 | +16% |
| Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? | Jun 27 | $23 | −$22 | -97% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 27 | $506 | +$327 | +65% |
| Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? | Jun 26 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | Jun 26 | $61 | −$60 | -98% |
| Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? | Jun 23 | $26 | +$167 | +650% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $138 | +$63 | +46% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $151 | +$69 | +46% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $310 | +$155 | +50% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? | Jun 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $50 | +$24 | +48% |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $41 | +$180 | +442% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $101 | +$58 | +57% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |