Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1adf…b15a
weather · 134 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$1 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses25 / 91
Open positions18
Markets (closed)116 / 134
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 18 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 60¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+505%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Yes 19¢ 50¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+161%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Yes 45¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 7? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +121%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$8 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$4 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -3.9% -13.1% 24% 24% -7.6%
≤30d 116 -3.7% -12.9% 22% 22% -8.0%
≤90d 116 -3.7% -12.9% 22% 22% -8.0%
all 116 -3.7% -12.9% 22% 22% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 22% -8.0%
10% -21.2% 22% -16.8%
15% -28.8% 22% -24.9%
20% -35.8% 22% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.31 · official $19.47 (match) · 160 history records