trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -7.2% | -16.0% | 50% | 0% | -14.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -27.0% | -34.0% | 33% | 0% | -22.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -42.6% | -48.1% | 25% | 17% | -56.3% |
| all | 18 | -35.8% | -41.9% | 28% | 22% | -62.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.9% | 22% | -62.9% |
| 10% | -47.5% | 17% | -66.5% |
| 15% | -52.5% | 17% | -69.7% |
| 20% | -57.2% | 17% | -72.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | $1,573 | $1,756 | +$183 (+12%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | $50 | $53 | +$3 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el | Jun 26 | $25 | −$4 | -18% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Jun 26 | $34 | +$1 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$7 | -67% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee | May 15 | $30 | −$19 | -63% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | May 15 | $10 | −$5 | -50% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | May 04 | $10 | −$1 | -8% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Apr 24 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? | Apr 24 | $20 | +$4 | +21% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | Apr 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Apr 17 | $100 | −$98 | -98% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | Apr 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 12 | $13 | +$9 | +70% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Mar 26 | $9 | −$2 | -18% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Mar 26 | $10 | −$5 | -50% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Mar 20 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve? | Mar 20 | $350 | −$350 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Mar 20 | $19 | +$13 | +70% |
| Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Mar 20 | $85 | +$57 | +67% |