Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1adc…10b6 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$16
14 days+$12
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$16
politics 18% $0
other 17% −$3
sports 9% −$16
economics 1% $0
weather 0% +$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 10% -6.9%
≤30d 29 +1.5% -8.2% 45% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 77 +0.2% -9.3% 34% 3% -9.1%
all 86 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 6% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage525d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $57 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $107 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $67 +$14 +20%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $60 +$2 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $127 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $206 −$4 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 +$1 +55%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $9 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $130 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $61 +$6 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $46 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $86 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $8 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $41 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $48 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $1 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $57 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $4 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $34 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $20 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $57 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $16 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $18 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $62 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $62 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $55 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $62 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.37 · official $33.30 · 432 history records