Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1ad9…7bf6 sports 227 markets active 3d ago coverage 154d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$226 (-1%) realized −$165 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%96W / 129L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$113
14 days+$113
30 days−$2,986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$2,210
economics 18% +$1,832
world 16% −$1,799
crypto 15% −$1,981
sports 10% +$478
politics 9% −$1,198
tech 2% +$81
finance 1% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 19 -32.2% -38.6% 37% 16% -29.5%
≤90d 116 +10.5% -0.0% 51% 43% -24.9%
all 225 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 38% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 38% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 35% -20.7%
15% -23.9% 30% -28.4%
20% -31.4% 27% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$76 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$939
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses96 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)225 / 227
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$132
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 74¢ 69¢ $1,000 $939 −$61 (-6%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 24 $7,190 +$113 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1,093 −$1,092 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $145 +$8 +6%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $109 −$109 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $50 −$12 -23%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $301 +$255 +85%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual Jun 03 $22 −$4 -16%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier Jun 03 $18 −$18 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4,359 −$1,975 -45%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $12 −$4 -30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $25 +$31 +126%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $14 +$4 +28%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $16 +$14 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $42 +$38 +88%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $25 +$21 +85%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $18 +$12 +64%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $25 +$15 +58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $84 −$26 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $15 −$4 -28%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $62 −$62 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 23 $10 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $11 $0 -1%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $10 +$23 +230%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $27 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $25 +$32 +124%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $27 +$40 +150%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $10 +$9 +96%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $29 +$34 +117%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $10 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 74¢ $1,000 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $1,005 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $937 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $20 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $59 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $6 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $1 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $15 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $1,017 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $47 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 43¢ $1,044 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $1,020 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 43¢ $575 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $562 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 43¢ $85 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $42 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $41 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $0 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $2 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $2 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $131 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $600 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $80 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $201 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $989 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $6 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $3 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $43 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $678 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $939.14 · official $939.27 (match) · 3500 history records