Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ad7…15d4 world 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+2%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$15
other 25% +$11
politics 17% +$5
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +3.8% -6.1% 38% 8% -7.3%
≤90d 13 +3.8% -6.1% 38% 8% -7.3%
all 34 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 6% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -7.3%
10% -18.1% 6% -16.2%
15% -26.0% 6% -24.3%
20% -33.3% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage328d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $9 −$1 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $63 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $7 −$1 -18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $22 +$16 +75%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $61 −$12 -19%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $48 +$30 +64%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $61 +$5 +8%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $40 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $12 $0 +1%
Another US military action against Iran before August? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 12m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $38 12m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 12m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $12 12m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $26 12m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $85 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $6 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $38 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $45 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $89 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $91 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $91 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $47 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records