Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ad5…6ad9 crypto 101 markets active 5d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%50W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -34.4% -40.7% 47% 27% -27.9%
≤30d 101 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 35% -22.6%
≤90d 101 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 35% -22.6%
all 101 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 35% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 35% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 27% -30.1%
15% -39.7% 21% -36.8%
20% -45.6% 15% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records