trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $18 | $18 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $13 | +$3 (+29%) |
| Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies | 46¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Kings vs. Lakers | Kings | 21¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Grizzlies vs. Thunder | Grizzlies | 10¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Heat vs. Magic | Heat | 59¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Clippers | Pistons | 38¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | Up | 6¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Clippers | Rockets | 40¢ | 0¢ | $36 | $0 | −$36 (-100%) |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $68 | $0 | −$68 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | Down | 16¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Nuggets vs. Cavaliers | Nuggets | 18¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Pacers vs. Celtics | Pacers | 33¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| 76ers vs. Thunder | 76ers | 17¢ | 0¢ | $23 | $0 | −$23 (-100%) |
| Hornets vs. Bucks | Hornets | 33¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Grizzlies vs. Lakers | Grizzlies | 39¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Mavericks vs. Kings | Mavericks | 52¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Jazz vs. Nuggets | Jazz | 16¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | Jun 02 | $2 | −$2 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | Jun 02 | $2 | −$2 | -94% |
| Nuggets vs. Cavaliers | Jan 03 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Bucks | Jan 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Lakers | Jan 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Lakers | Dec 31 | $10 | +$2 | +16% |
| Celtics vs. Jazz | Dec 31 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Dec 31 | $11 | −$2 | -15% |
| Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech | Dec 30 | $8 | +$2 | +30% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? | Dec 30 | $22 | −$15 | -66% |
| Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? | Dec 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? | Dec 30 | $2 | −$2 | -92% |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? | Dec 30 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 30 | $28 | −$1 | -3% |
| Knicks vs. Pelicans | Dec 30 | $23 | +$5 | +22% |
| Cavaliers vs. Spurs | Dec 30 | $2 | −$1 | -66% |
| Warriors vs. Nets | Dec 30 | $18 | +$2 | +10% |
| Hawks vs. Thunder | Dec 30 | $2 | +$1 | +29% |
| Suns vs. Wizards | Dec 30 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Pistons vs. Clippers | Dec 29 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Lakers | Dec 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Wizards | Dec 29 | $3 | −$2 | -50% |
| Warriors vs. Raptors | Dec 28 | $257 | −$145 | -57% |
| 76ers vs. Thunder | Dec 28 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Spurs | Dec 28 | $86 | +$91 | +106% |
| Bucks vs. Bulls | Dec 28 | $8 | +$1 | +17% |
| Nuggets vs. Magic | Dec 28 | $5 | −$1 | -23% |
| Mavericks vs. Kings | Dec 27 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 27 | $75 | +$14 | +18% |
| Pistons vs. Jazz | Dec 27 | $4 | −$1 | -20% |
| Suns vs. Pelicans | Dec 27 | $6 | +$9 | +156% |
| 76ers vs. Bulls | Dec 27 | $49 | +$18 | +37% |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | Dec 27 | $4 | +$7 | +172% |
| Celtics vs. Pacers | Dec 27 | $3 | +$2 | +69% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Dec 27 | $4 | −$3 | -79% |
| Kraken vs. Kings | Dec 24 | $40 | +$3 | +6% |
| Rockets vs. Clippers | Dec 24 | $36 | −$36 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 24 | $10 | +$6 | +62% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Dec 24 | $4 | +$7 | +185% |
| Nuggets vs. Mavericks | Dec 24 | $18 | +$27 | +150% |
| Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Dec 24 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Warriors | Dec 23 | $17 | +$10 | +56% |
| Grizzlies vs. Thunder | Dec 23 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Celtics | Dec 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Nuggets | Dec 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Dec 19 | $68 | −$68 | -100% |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | Dec 18 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? | Dec 15 | $15 | −$9 | -58% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? | Dec 15 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 57 | -30.2% | -36.8% | 37% | 30% | -26.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.8% | 30% | -26.4% |
| 10% | -42.9% | 23% | -33.4% |
| 15% | -48.4% | 19% | -39.9% |
| 20% | -53.5% | 18% | -45.8% |