Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1ad2…a8ed
sports · 59 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$237 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$239 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$31
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses21 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage189d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
76ers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 46¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Kings vs. Lakers Kings 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Grizzlies 10¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Heat vs. Magic Heat 59¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Yes 15¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Yes 11¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Clippers Pistons 38¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Clippers Rockets 40¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? No 17¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Nuggets 18¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Celtics Pacers 33¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Yes 39¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? Yes 18¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
76ers vs. Thunder 76ers 17¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Bucks Hornets 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Grizzlies 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Kings Mavericks 52¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Nuggets Jazz 16¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Jan 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Hornets vs. Bucks Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 31 $10 +$2 +16%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 31 $9 +$1 +8%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Dec 31 $11 −$2 -15%
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech Dec 30 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $22 −$15 -66%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -92%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Dec 30 $28 −$1 -3%
Knicks vs. Pelicans Dec 30 $23 +$5 +22%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Dec 30 $2 −$1 -66%
Warriors vs. Nets Dec 30 $18 +$2 +10%
Hawks vs. Thunder Dec 30 $2 +$1 +29%
Suns vs. Wizards Dec 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Dec 29 $3 −$2 -50%
Warriors vs. Raptors Dec 28 $257 −$145 -57%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Dec 28 $86 +$91 +106%
Bucks vs. Bulls Dec 28 $8 +$1 +17%
Nuggets vs. Magic Dec 28 $5 −$1 -23%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Dec 27 $75 +$14 +18%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 27 $4 −$1 -20%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 27 $6 +$9 +156%
76ers vs. Bulls Dec 27 $49 +$18 +37%
Raptors vs. Wizards Dec 27 $4 +$7 +172%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $3 +$2 +69%
Hornets vs. Magic Dec 27 $4 −$3 -79%
Kraken vs. Kings Dec 24 $40 +$3 +6%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Magic vs. Trail Blazers Dec 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs Dec 24 $4 +$7 +185%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Dec 24 $18 +$27 +150%
Pelicans vs. Cavaliers Dec 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Dec 23 $17 +$10 +56%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Dec 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Pacers vs. Celtics Dec 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Dec 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $15 −$9 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? Dec 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$71
other 12% −$59
politics 5% −$68
crypto 3% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up $2 11d
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers BUY Nuggets 51¢ $4 161d
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers BUY Nuggets 11¢ $4 161d
Hornets vs. Bucks BUY Hornets 33¢ $1 161d
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers BUY Nuggets 15¢ $1 161d
Grizzlies vs. Lakers BUY Grizzlies 39¢ $1 161d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Pistons 90¢ $8 164d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Pistons 70¢ $1 164d
Celtics vs. Jazz SELL Celtics 99¢ $10 164d
Celtics vs. Jazz BUY Celtics 92¢ $9 164d
76ers vs. Grizzlies SELL 76ers 100¢ $9 164d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 46¢ $2 164d
76ers vs. Grizzlies SELL 76ers 59¢ $2 164d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY 76ers 91¢ $9 164d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY 76ers 45¢ $1 164d
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech SELL Louisiana Tech 100¢ $10 164d
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech BUY Louisiana Tech 77¢ $8 164d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 164d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 164d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 164d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? SELL Yes $0 164d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 164d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 164d
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 96¢ $26 165d
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers BUY Mavericks 41¢ $2 165d
Knicks vs. Pelicans SELL Knicks 99¢ $22 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 57 -30.2% -36.8% 37% 30% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 30% -26.4%
10% -42.9% 23% -33.4%
15% -48.4% 19% -39.9%
20% -53.5% 18% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.67 · official $30.67 (match) · 137 history records