Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ad1…2030 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$131 (+4%) realized +$102 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$340
7 days+$527
14 days+$527
30 days+$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$377
other 6% −$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +138.8% +116.1% 50% 50% +74.2%
≤30d 2 +138.8% +116.1% 50% 50% +74.2%
≤90d 3 +59.2% +44.0% 33% 33% +29.0%
all 24 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 54% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 54% -3.6%
10% -14.8% 54% -12.8%
15% -23.0% 50% -21.2%
20% -30.6% 50% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$147 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage180d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage Shopify Rebellion 36¢ 40¢ $350 $384 +$34 (+10%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Under 12¢ 11¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North Am Jun 25 $347 −$340 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN Jun 23 $230 +$867 +378%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Miami Open: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov Mar 18 $280 −$280 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 18 $171 +$109 +64%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Feb 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien Feb 22 $100 +$64 +64%
Qatar Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Feb 19 $100 +$69 +70%
Argentina Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Mariano Navone Feb 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Laura Siegemund vs Varvara Gracheva Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sara Bejlek vs Clara Tauson Feb 08 $50 +$36 +71%
Open Sud de France: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Arthur Fils Feb 06 $239 +$140 +59%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Kimberly Birrell Feb 06 $100 +$72 +72%
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta Feb 06 $197 +$142 +72%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs WW Team (BO3) - Exort Cataclysm Group B Jan 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Jan 25 $139 +$93 +67%
Cazaux vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 23.5 Jan 16 $16 +$12 +75%
Adelaide International: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ugo Humbert Jan 16 $50 +$43 +85%
ASB Classic: Nuno Borges vs Eliot Spizzirri Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
ASB Classic, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maja Chwalinska Jan 02 $140 −$94 -67%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Rebecca Sramkova vs Lizette Cab Jan 02 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Giants (-2.5) Jan 01 $100 +$89 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North BUY Shopify Rebellion 36¢ $357 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $62 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North Am BUY For Fun Esports 34¢ $41 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North Am BUY For Fun Esports 30¢ $306 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN SELL Geekay Esports 100¢ $1,097 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Geekay Esports 20¢ $205 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Geekay Esports 20¢ $25 2d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 51¢ $205 41d
Miami Open: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 58¢ $280 100d
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 61¢ $171 106d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 48¢ $200 119d
Delray Beach Open: Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien BUY Paul 61¢ $100 125d
Qatar Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev BUY Rublev 59¢ $100 127d
Argentina Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Mariano Navone BUY Navone 58¢ $200 133d
Qatar Total Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Maneiro 27¢ $100 137d
Qatar Total Open: Laura Siegemund vs Varvara Gracheva BUY Siegemund 36¢ $50 138d
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sara Bejlek vs Clara Tauson BUY Bejlek 58¢ $50 139d
Open Sud de France: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Arthur Fils BUY Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $239 140d
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Birrell 58¢ $100 140d
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Griekspoor 58¢ $197 141d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs WW Team (BO3) - Exort Cataclysm Group B BUY WW Team 54¢ $35 145d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac BUY Musetti 60¢ $139 154d
Adelaide International: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ugo Humbert BUY Humbert 54¢ $50 161d
ASB Classic: Nuno Borges vs Eliot Spizzirri BUY Borges 55¢ $100 163d
ASB Classic, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Guo 28¢ $20 174d
ASB Classic, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Guo 18¢ $46 174d
ASB Classic, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Guo 38¢ $20 174d
ASB Classic, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Guo 49¢ $50 174d
ASB Classic, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Guo 49¢ $50 174d
Cazaux vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.33 · official $439.33 (match) · 46 history records