Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ad0…7733 crypto 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$336 (-2%) realized −$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%180W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$50
14 days−$154
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$644
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.3% -7.4% 79% 38% -6.5%
≤30d 175 -2.4% -11.7% 74% 39% -11.4%
≤90d 245 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 40% -12.5%
all 254 -5.7% -14.7% 71% 39% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 39% -12.5%
10% -22.8% 18% -20.9%
15% -30.3% 6% -28.5%
20% -37.1% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$24 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses180 / 74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage106d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 82¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$12 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $86 −$28 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $91 −$4 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$4 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$4 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $110 −$8 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$6 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $109 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $101 −$4 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $111 −$4 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$4 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$2 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$3 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$5 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$45 -70%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$52 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $76 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $13 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $64 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.57 · official $7.62 · 662 history records