Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1acf…5b5b politics 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$4
sports 29% −$3
other 26% −$2
tech 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -4.9% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -4.9% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 62 -8.3% -17.1% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage238d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $107 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $108 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13? Feb 19 $106 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $107 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $3 $0 -11%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $109 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $106 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Dec 03 $114 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 27 $114 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 25 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 16d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 19d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 105d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 111d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 112d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 114d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 117d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 121d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 121d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 125d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $106 129d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $108 135d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $108 142d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $108 143d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $108 144d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 145d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 145d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 146d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 146d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.60 · official $6.60 (match) · 228 history records