Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1acd…53f3 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$23
sports 33% −$1
weather 16% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 40% -29.7%
≤30d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 40% -29.7%
≤90d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 40% -29.7%
all 5 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 40% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 40% -29.7%
10% -25.1% 40% -36.4%
15% -32.4% 40% -42.6%
20% -39.0% 40% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 41¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 26¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $34 1h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $51 1h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 12h
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $20 13h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $20 13h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $10 23h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $20 23h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.51 · official $164.13 (match) · 13 history records