Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1ac9…7359 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$132 (+43%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$65
crypto 13% +$27
sports 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +53.0% +38.4% 53% 53% +32.8%
≤30d 17 +53.0% +38.4% 53% 53% +32.8%
≤90d 17 +53.0% +38.4% 53% 53% +32.8%
all 17 +53.0% +38.4% 53% 53% +32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.4% 53% +32.8%
10% +25.2% 47% +20.1%
15% +13.1% 41% +8.5%
20% +2.0% 35% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$24 +452%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 +$27 +86%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 +$6 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 +$25 +120%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$27 +837%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $42 +$17 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$27 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$15 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.48 · official $50.48 (match) · 35 history records