Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

1A 0x1ac7…4b3e sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$27 (-14%) realized −$22 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%13W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day28.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-2.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+7.9%	-2.4%	52%	52%	-18.0%
≤30d	25	+7.9%	-2.4%	52%	52%	-18.0%
≤90d	25	+7.9%	-2.4%	52%	52%	-18.0%
all	25	+7.9%	-2.4%	52%	52%	-18.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.1 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-2.4%	52%	-18.0%
10% ← realistic here	-11.8%	52%	-25.9%
15%	-20.3%	52%	-33.0%
20%	-28.1%	40%	-39.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -53% → late +64% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.81 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized−$22

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses13 / 12

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)25 / 26

History coverage1d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day28.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	59¢	18¢	$7	$2	−$5 (-70%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$4	+$4	+108%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$10	+$12	+114%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$5	+$7	+140%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$5	+$6	+114%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$10	+$7	+65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$2	+$3	+165%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$6	+$4	+65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$5	+$11	+222%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$5	−$4	-69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$5	+$4	+71%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$5	−$3	-62%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$10	+$5	+50%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Jun 14	$14	−$14	-99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$10	+$5	+50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$9	+$9	+97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$10	−$7	-73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	61¢	$7	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$4	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	42¢	$5	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$10	2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	22¢	$1	3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	72¢	$6	4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	37¢	$2	9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$5	10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	82¢	$6	10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	41¢	$5	10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$6	10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	60¢	$10	10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	15¢	$2	10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	30¢	$5	10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$9	10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$5	11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	18¢	$2	11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	46¢	$5	11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	47¢	$5	11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$6	11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$15	23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$15	24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	66¢	$10	25h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	BUY Spurs	52¢	$14	25h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)	BUY Spurs	60¢	$15	26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	12¢	$5	26h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	BUY Scotland	46¢	$10	27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$18	27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	66¢	$10	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 50 history records