Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1ac5…e675 crypto 35 markets active 20h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$256 (-6%) realized −$477 · open +$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$285
14 days−$497
30 days−$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$211
sports 24% +$145
world 5% −$210
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -39.6% -45.4% 31% 31% -23.2%
≤30d 16 -42.0% -47.5% 31% 31% -28.4%
≤90d 33 -25.2% -32.3% 30% 30% -28.4%
all 33 -25.2% -32.3% 30% 30% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 30% -28.4%
10% -38.8% 30% -35.2%
15% -44.7% 30% -41.5%
20% -50.1% 27% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$60 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,958
Realized−$477
Unrealized+$221
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage35d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $1,300 $1,661 +$361 (+28%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $437 $297 −$140 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $222 −$219 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $223 +$207 +92%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $220 +$197 +90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $220 −$217 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $220 +$223 +101%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $153 +$155 +102%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $213 −$210 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $75 −$73 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 +$88 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 16 $1 +$4 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $1 +$2 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 15 $1 +$2 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 15 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 15 $6 −$3 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $222 19h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $74 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $430 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $220 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $223 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 43h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $220 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $220 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $56 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 84¢ $155 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 85¢ $152 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 41¢ $153 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $213 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $72 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $75 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $295 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,181 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $223 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $82 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $144 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,957.59 · official $1,957.59 (match) · 63 history records