Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ac5…894c other 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$156
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%52W / 22L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$842
7 days+$1,673
14 days+$1,675
30 days+$1,675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$2,706
crypto 27% −$1,688
sports 21% −$100
politics 11% −$653
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +51.9% +37.4% 93% 19% +27.4%
≤30d 30 +46.9% +32.9% 90% 23% +27.2%
≤90d 58 +24.4% +12.6% 79% 24% -5.7%
all 74 +12.3% +1.6% 70% 26% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 26% -8.8%
10% -8.1% 19% -17.5%
15% -17.0% 19% -25.5%
20% -25.1% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$145 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses52 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions5
Markets (closed)74 / 79
History coverage372d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 59¢ 92¢ $300 $468 +$168 (+56%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 22¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ shots Yes 99¢ 84¢ $55 $47 −$9 (-16%)
Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots Yes 99¢ 50¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-49%)
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots Jun 20 $17 $0 +1%
Tijjani Reijnders: 4+ shots Jun 20 $39 $0 +1%
Tijjani Reijnders: 3+ shots Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Donyell Malen: 4+ shots Jun 20 $32 +$1 +2%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ shots Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 5+ shots Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 2+ shots Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 4+ shots Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots Jun 20 $27 +$1 +2%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $2,080 +$20 +1%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Ché Adams: 1+ shots Jun 20 $12 $0 +4%
Ché Adams: 3+ shots Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ché Adams: 4+ shots Jun 20 $12 $0 +4%
Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 19 $300 +$13 +4%
Promise David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $300 +$6 +2%
Pavel Šulc: 1+ shots Jun 18 $72 +$340 +474%
Lukáš Provod: 2+ shots Jun 18 $305 +$458 +150%
Mojmír Chytil: 1+ shots Jun 18 $62 +$313 +510%
Denis Višinský: 1+ shots Jun 18 $140 +$584 +416%
Denis Višinský: 1+ goals Jun 18 $100 +$13 +13%
Lukáš Provod: 1+ shots Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sparta Prague win Czechia Fortuna Liga? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Slavia Prague win Czechia Fortuna Liga? Jun 07 $11 +$5 +49%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-05-09? May 13 $173 +$172 +100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 13 $4,120 −$1,319 -32%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 13 $30 +$73 +244%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Apr 13 $50 +$40 +78%
Will 1. FC Slovácko win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $40 +$4 +10%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $650 +$114 +18%
Madrid: Elina Avanesyan vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Apr 07 $550 −$550 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $255 +$10 +4%
Wuning: Alastair Gray vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Apr 06 $284 −$11 -4%
Wuning: Blake Ellis vs Justin Boulais Apr 06 $490 −$36 -7%
Wuning: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Omar Jasika Apr 06 $177 $0 -0%
Madrid: Francesca Jones vs Elizabeth Mandlik Apr 06 $392 +$18 +4%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Alycia Parks vs Dalma Galfi Apr 06 $650 +$30 +5%
Wuning: Tom Paris vs Ilia Simakin Apr 06 $531 +$273 +51%
Blues vs. Avalanche Apr 06 $121 +$2 +2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 05 $578 +$10 +2%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Teplice: O/U 1.5 Apr 04 $5 $0 +5%
FC Zlín vs. FK Jablonec: O/U 1.5 Apr 04 $17 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kai Havertz: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $55 3m
Tijjani Reijnders: 3+ shots BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Tijjani Reijnders: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $17 1h
Donyell Malen: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 17h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,981 17h
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ shots BUY No 99¢ $55 18h
Frantzdy Pierrot: 2+ shots BUY No 99¢ $55 18h
Frantzdy Pierrot: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $55 18h
Frantzdy Pierrot: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $55 18h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 94¢ $9 19h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 95¢ $5 19h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 94¢ $5 19h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $8 19h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $19 19h
Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $50 20h
Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $50 20h
Ché Adams: 3+ shots BUY No 99¢ $50 20h
Ché Adams: 4+ shots BUY No 96¢ $12 20h
Ché Adams: 1+ shots BUY No 96¢ $12 20h
Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots BUY Yes 85¢ $4 23h
Promise David: 1+ goals BUY No 98¢ $300 44h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $100 44h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals BUY No 96¢ $200 44h
Denis Višinský: 1+ shots BUY No 26¢ $68 2d
Lukáš Provod: 2+ shots BUY No 40¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.20 · official $687.20 (match) · 305 history records