Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1A 0x1ac4…be85 crypto 361 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,588 (+12%) realized +$5,588 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate98%353W / 8L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$432
7 days+$1,291
14 days+$1,855
30 days+$2,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,546
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +15.9% +4.9% 96% 24% +11.5%
≤30d 140 +20.8% +9.3% 98% 36% +9.5%
≤90d 361 +18.2% +6.9% 98% 32% +1.2%
all 361 +18.2% +6.9% 98% 32% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 32% +1.2%
10% -3.3% 23% -8.5%
15% -12.7% 18% -17.3%
20% -21.2% 12% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$104 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.64 per $1 lost it wins $7.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,588
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses353 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)361 / 361
History coverage71d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 361 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$19 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$17 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$89 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $289 +$211 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $330 +$170 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $327 +$173 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $660 +$340 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $660 +$340 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $131 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $246 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $301 +$32 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $99 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1302 history records