Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1ac4…d6a4 sports 63 markets active 3d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+20%) realized +$157 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%32W / 27L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days+$15
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$58
crypto 23% +$26
other 7% +$20
finance 5% $0
politics 1% +$24
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 28 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 43% -3.6%
≤90d 28 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 43% -3.6%
all 59 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 44% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 44% +8.4%
10% -19.8% 41% -2.0%
15% -27.6% 39% -11.5%
20% -34.7% 27% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses32 / 27
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)59 / 63
History coverage124d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 −$4 -54%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$2 -66%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $7 −$2 -28%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $14 +$6 +41%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$13 +63%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $18 +$9 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$11 +110%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $18 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $30 −$23 -78%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $29 +$11 +36%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$1 -28%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3 +$7 +212%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$5 +103%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $9 +$6 +64%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $4 +$6 +127%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $9 −$2 -17%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $4 +$6 +122%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$5 -63%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: SoloTeam vs Nix Team - Game 2 Winner May 23 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 02 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 02 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 02 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 02 $5 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5AM ET Feb 23 $9 +$32 +356%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Feb 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Feb 17 $10 +$10 +94%
Will Team Liquid win Blast Slam VI? Feb 16 $45 +$20 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 15 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Feb 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Feb 15 $16 +$8 +54%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Feb 15 $14 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Feb 15 $8 +$7 +78%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Feb 15 $22 −$8 -38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 14 $27 +$10 +38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Feb 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $3 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $2 5d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $0 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 12¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $4 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 19¢ $2 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 73¢ $4 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 73¢ $9 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 16¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $4 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 99¢ $20 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 70¢ $14 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $30 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 52¢ $5 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $15 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 46¢ $5 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $6 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 28¢ $3 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $4 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $9 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 60¢ $3 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 60¢ $6 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $3 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 48¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.31 · official $12.31 (match) · 172 history records