Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ac3…96c3 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$126 (+5%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate100%50W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 2% -5.2%
≤30d 50 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 2% -5.2%
≤90d 50 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 2% -5.2%
all 50 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 2% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 2% -5.2%
10% -13.8% 0% -14.2%
15% -22.2% 0% -22.5%
20% -29.8% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses50 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage4d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $73 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $88 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $68 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $92 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $113 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $112 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $95 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $109 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $108 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $79 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $83 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $88 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $55 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $56 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $22 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $48 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $14 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $44 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $42 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $32 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $54 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $92 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records