Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ac0…95c9 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$5
other 26% $0
politics 25% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 0% -8.6%
all 39 -1.2% -10.6% 26% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage328d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $52 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $14 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $17 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 01 $56 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $63 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $2 $0 -12%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? Jul 29 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $63 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 28 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $55 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $22 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $28 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $52 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $52 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $52 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $52 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.27 · official $54.27 (match) · 152 history records