Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1abf…663b other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%89W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$35
crypto 20% +$3
world 6% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 90 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -10.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -19.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$52 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses89 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage473d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $62 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 09 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 06 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 25 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 6? Mar 13 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 06 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Mar 02 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on Feb Feb 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? Feb 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 12 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in January? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 30 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 29 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on De Dec 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 30 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Dec 06 $2 $0 +20%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Dec 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November? Dec 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 06 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 17? Nov 30 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 10? Nov 17 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 57m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $62 15d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 20d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 22d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 31d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $1 33d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 33d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 38d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 50d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 58d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 61d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $60 71d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 78d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 83d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 83d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 83d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $56 102d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 107d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 124d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $5 124d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $52 134d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on Feb BUY No 99¢ $1 134d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 134d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $47 137d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $47 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.03 · official $61.97 (match) · 181 history records