Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

1A 0x1abc…f951 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$53 (+20%) realized +$52 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate48%13W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day37.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit79%portable

Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)+4.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+15.6%	+4.6%	48%	41%	+3.3%
≤30d	27	+15.6%	+4.6%	48%	41%	+3.3%
≤90d	27	+15.6%	+4.6%	48%	41%	+3.3%
all	27	+15.6%	+4.6%	48%	41%	+3.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover37.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+4.6%	41%	+3.3%
10% ← realistic here	-5.4%	41%	-6.6%
15%	-14.6%	33%	-15.6%
20%	-22.9%	26%	-23.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late +45% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.32 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$13

Realized+$52

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses13 / 14

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 28

History coverage2d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day37.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	33¢	35¢	$12	$13	+$1 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ghana leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$30	+$12	+41%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$4	−$3	-98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals	Jun 17	$5	+$29	+589%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$4	+$6	+172%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$20	−$10	-49%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$14	+$39	+276%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$25	+$37	+145%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 15	$25	−$25	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$1	-22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 15	$3	$0	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$2	-47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$2	+170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 15	$4	+$2	+42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	+$4	+23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$15	−$9	-57%
Belgium leading at halftime?	Jun 15	$15	+$10	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	33¢	$13	1h
Ghana leading at halftime?	SELL No	100¢	$42	1h
Ghana leading at halftime?	BUY No	70¢	$30	3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	30¢	$4	4h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	99¢	$34	4h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	5h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$10	7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	36¢	$4	8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	8h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$34	46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY No	50¢	$10	46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$54	47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	26¢	$14	2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$62	2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	38¢	$25	2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	40¢	$25	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Down	27¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.09 · official $12.90 (match) · 90 history records