Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aba…1998 sports 16 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-5%) realized +$9 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$13
sports 23% −$5
crypto 16% $0
economics 12% $0
world 12% −$15
tech 8% $0
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.1% +15.0% 91% 18% +10.4%
≤30d 12 +16.5% +5.4% 83% 17% -1.5%
≤90d 12 +16.5% +5.4% 83% 17% -1.5%
all 12 +16.5% +5.4% 83% 17% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 17% -1.5%
10% -4.7% 17% -10.9%
15% -13.9% 17% -19.5%
20% -22.3% 17% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$16 +313%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $8 $0 +4%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.48 · official $15.48 (match) · 26 history records