Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ab9…2f18 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$5
politics 14% +$1
other 14% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 19 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 19 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 0% -10.3%
all 42 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage255d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $28 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $95 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Jan 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $3 $0 +9%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 09 $22 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $28 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $28 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $35 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.17 · official $27.17 (match) · 135 history records