Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ab6…ea66 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% $0
world 29% $0
politics 21% +$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.8%
all 35 -0.0% -9.6% 34% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage264d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $73 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 09 $2 $0 -12%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 08 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $27 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $2 $0 -9%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 27 $4 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $7 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $25 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $40 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $40 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 23d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 250d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 98¢ $2 250d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 91¢ $24 250d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 91¢ $24 250d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $23 250d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $23 250d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 97¢ $21 250d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.82 · official $39.82 (match) · 116 history records