Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1ab4…20e3
sports · 593 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$485 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$480 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized−$480
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses322 / 261
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions11
Markets (closed)583 / 593
History coverage54d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 11 History 583 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$13
14 days+$22
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #4 Playoffs Reign Above 47¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic Joao Fonseca 78¢ 50¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+55%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 47¢ 77¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+64%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 73¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
BMW Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Giustino vs Andrea Pellegrino Andrea Pellegrino 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 Playoffs Yawara Esports 47¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 80¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 88¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? No 77¢ 66¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 85¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Legacy 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs playersclub (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs Walczaki 90¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 83¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BMW Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Giustino vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 +$9 +39%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $34 −$25 -74%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $2 +$3 +163%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $4 +$5 +140%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 +$4 +103%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 09 $2 $0 -2%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 +$1 +95%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$2 +82%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$3 +112%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $7 −$1 -15%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $11 +$5 +51%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $3 +$1 +35%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $8 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$4 +174%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $4 −$2 -58%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $32 +$25 +78%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $9 −$6 -68%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $5 +$4 +74%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 +$2 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $6 +$3 +58%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $6 +$7 +114%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $18 −$11 -65%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$2 +45%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$2 +39%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$7 +144%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $9 +$2 +19%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $2 −$1 -58%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $13 +$5 +39%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 06 $7 +$4 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% −$514
world 3% +$9
other 3% +$3
politics 1% +$10
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$2
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $33 9m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 70¢ $23 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 71¢ $28 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 32¢ $1 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 54¢ $5 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $2 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $1 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $4 7h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 63¢ $4 43h
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Global Esports 44¢ $3 46h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $9 46h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $4 2d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 37¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 43¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 54¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 3d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 46¢ $2 3d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 46¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY Legacy 51¢ $2 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 3d
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $3 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $4 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 53¢ $2 3d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 80¢ $3 3d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY NRG 53¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 47% -6.7%
≤30d 280 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 53% -20.9%
≤90d 583 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 53% -20.5%
all 583 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 53% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 53% -20.5%
10% -18.9% 48% -28.1%
15% -26.7% 43% -35.0%
20% -33.9% 36% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.19 · official $57.20 (match) · 3500 history records