Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1ab4…e981 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized −$199 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%35W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,669now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days−$253
14 days−$253
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$34
crypto 40% +$94
other 12% −$85
world 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -14.9% -23.0% 56% 56% -18.0%
≤30d 46 -13.7% -22.0% 57% 57% -16.4%
≤90d 60 -12.2% -20.6% 58% 53% -13.7%
all 60 -12.2% -20.6% 58% 53% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 53% -13.7%
10% -28.2% 50% -21.9%
15% -35.1% 35% -29.5%
20% -41.5% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$49 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,669
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses35 / 25
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)60 / 64
History coverage79d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,220 $1,280 +$60 (+5%)
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $90 $161 +$71 (+78%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 80¢ $130 $132 +$2 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $91 +$34 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $91 +$96 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $91 +$24 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $250 −$248 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $161 +$67 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $89 +$94 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$23 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$48 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$15 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$21 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $48 +$18 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 −$35 -70%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$15 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $162 +$84 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$18 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 +$23 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$44 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 −$36 -72%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $101 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 26 $300 +$31 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 26 $500 +$24 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 22 $300 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $96 55m
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $91 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $91 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $40 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 16h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $20 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $230 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $89 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $161 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 40h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 40h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,668.61 · official $1,668.61 (match) · 115 history records