Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ab2…408e crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+8%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%51W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$17
other 9% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 53% +0.9%
≤30d 66 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 52% +0.8%
≤90d 94 -8.0% -16.8% 54% 46% -7.3%
all 94 -8.0% -16.8% 54% 46% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 46% -7.3%
10% -24.7% 23% -16.2%
15% -32.0% 14% -24.3%
20% -38.7% 9% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses51 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage46d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$40 +746%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$11 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records