Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:05:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aac…d1e3 world 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$356 (+1%) realized +$2,352 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate61%142W / 91L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day59.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$138
30 days+$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$2,233
other 19% +$180
politics 13% −$24
economics 4% +$70
crypto 3% −$157
sports 2% −$4
culture 1% +$22
finance 0% +$48
tech 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.2% +20.5% 100% 75% +7.7%
≤30d 132 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 24% -5.8%
≤90d 233 +12.5% +1.8% 61% 23% -3.1%
all 233 +12.5% +1.8% 61% 23% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 23% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 13% -12.4%
15% -16.9% 10% -20.9%
20% -25.0% 8% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$21 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$2,352
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses142 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions34
Markets (closed)233 / 256
History coverage54d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day59.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $54 $95 +$40 (+74%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 42¢ 83¢ $26 $52 +$26 (+100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+431%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 64¢ 57¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 88¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 41¢ 23¢ $8 $5 −$4 (-44%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 49¢ 93¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+90%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 92¢ 36¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-60%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-40%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 17¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-66%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 44¢ 17¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes 12¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes 21¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 23¢ $17 $0 −$16 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $536 −$78 -15%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $229 +$43 +19%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $19 +$2 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $18 +$7 +41%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $88 +$19 +22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -82%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $66 −$26 -39%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $48 −$29 -60%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $278 +$259 +93%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $29 −$12 -42%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $17 +$48 +282%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 30 $8 −$1 -19%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater tha May 30 $7 +$1 +12%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? May 30 $10 $0 +2%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $8 −$1 -8%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 29 $19 −$11 -59%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 29 $8 +$2 +24%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 29 $7 $0 -5%
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? May 29 $11 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $108 −$7 -6%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz May 29 $17 −$3 -19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $797 −$174 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $25 +$14 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $1,110 −$33 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 29 $18 $0 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 29 $16 $0 +1%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 29 $12 +$4 +29%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 29 $15 +$2 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $190 +$23 +12%
Trump goes to space in 2026? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $25 −$6 -26%
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? May 29 $20 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $19 +$3 +14%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 29 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $332 +$123 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $5 17m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $3 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 24m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $11 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 31h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 84¢ $0 2d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 67¢ $4 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 87¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.73 · official $253.43 (match) · 3500 history records