Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1aa3…4de8 economics 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$560 (-63%) realized −$536 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -96% what you keep after slip
Net edge-96%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$295
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$295
economics 47% −$249
world 3% −$30
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-96.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -67.6% -70.7% 0% 0% -70.7%
≤90d 1 -67.6% -70.7% 0% 0% -70.7%
all 8 -96.0% -96.3% 0% 0% -81.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -96.3% 0% -81.6%
10% -96.7% 0% -83.3%
15% -97.0% 0% -85.0%
20% -97.3% 0% -86.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -96% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$69 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$536
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage274d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $158 $132 −$26 (-17%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 8¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $436 −$295 -68%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $56 −$56 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? Sep 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.54 · official $163.54 (match) · 16 history records