Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aa2…0484 other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$394 (-10%) realized −$406 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$1,287
sports 27% +$1,174
crypto 10% −$268
world 5% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +29.8% +17.4% 21% 21% +4.8%
≤30d 24 +29.8% +17.4% 21% 21% +4.8%
≤90d 24 +29.8% +17.4% 21% 21% +4.8%
all 24 +29.8% +17.4% 21% 21% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.4% 21% +4.8%
10% ← realistic here +6.2% 21% -5.2%
15% -4.1% 21% -14.4%
20% -13.5% 21% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +71% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$111 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$406
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions13
Markets (closed)24 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $70 $79 +$9 (+12%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $255 −$96 -38%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $499 −$202 -40%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $58 +$110 +189%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $211 −$166 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$176 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,065 −$848 -80%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $464 +$442 +95%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$720 +1348%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$21 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $127 −$88 -69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $116 +$96 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 −$28 -25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 −$185 -91%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $129 −$26 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 1m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $14 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $181 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $162 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $16 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $31 4h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 5h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $13 5h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $12 5h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 32¢ $13 5h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 5h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 5h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $13 5h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $14 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.52 · official $217.52 (match) · 112 history records