Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1aa1…75d4 other 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+5%) realized +$54 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%69W / 97L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$65
14 days+$86
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$122
sports 14% −$30
crypto 2% −$9
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.3% -23.4% 42% 42% +14.8%
≤30d 60 +4.4% -5.6% 43% 42% +6.7%
≤90d 166 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 40% -3.7%
all 166 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 40% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 40% -3.7%
10% -24.0% 40% -12.9%
15% -31.3% 39% -21.3%
20% -38.1% 36% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses69 / 97
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)166 / 183
History coverage69d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $48 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$19 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 +$17 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 +$19 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +276%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$16 +156%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$17 +110%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +107%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$15 +474%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 02 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +65%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $7 +$6 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. Gambia end in a draw? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 +$10 +101%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 12¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 17¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 14¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 2¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $34 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 2¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 37¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 5¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.78 · official $104.78 · 290 history records