Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1A 0x1aa1…a37b other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$183 (+3%) realized +$215 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$117
14 days+$186
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$257
other 35% +$147
sports 18% −$257
finance 2% +$26
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.6% -24.6% 50% 50% +4.1%
≤30d 18 +66.4% +50.6% 56% 50% -6.0%
≤90d 44 +23.5% +11.8% 48% 30% -5.3%
all 45 +20.8% +9.3% 47% 29% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 29% -5.7%
10% -1.2% 20% -14.7%
15% -10.7% 7% -23.0%
20% -19.5% 7% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$25 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions10
Markets (closed)45 / 55
History coverage98d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 100¢ $94 $100 +$6 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $62 $46 −$16 (-27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 15¢ $15 $8 −$6 (-43%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $66 +$33 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $79 +$19 +24%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 19 $100 −$11 -11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $55 −$24 -44%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $356 +$124 +35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $409 +$96 +24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $137 −$135 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$81 +1624%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $500 +$22 +4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $42 +$15 +35%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 24 $444 +$70 +16%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $149 +$42 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 02 $222 +$34 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $550 +$49 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $305 +$63 +21%
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Apr 18 $50 −$5 -10%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Apr 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 +$90 +900%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 06 $100 +$10 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 31 $145 +$13 +9%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie Mar 24 $10 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $94 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 66¢ $66 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $79 26h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 79¢ $90 28h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $3 31h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $15 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 88¢ $100 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $31 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $127 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $506 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $55 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 14d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? BUY No 21¢ $21 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 14d
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 24d
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? BUY Yes 86¢ $444 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $500 29d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.65 · official $307.67 (match) · 174 history records