Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aa0…df1f crypto 322 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$192 (+6%) realized +$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%40W / 282L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day110.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$317
14 days+$375
30 days+$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$293
crypto 38% −$5
sports 11% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 39% +3.9%
≤30d 322 -50.2% -54.9% 12% 10% -2.1%
≤90d 322 -50.2% -54.9% 12% 10% -2.1%
all 322 -50.2% -54.9% 12% 10% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.9% 10% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -59.2% 5% -11.5%
15% -63.2% 4% -20.0%
20% -66.8% 4% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$3 · ×10.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses40 / 282
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)322 / 322
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day110.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 322 Trades
no open positions (270 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $133 +$270 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $301 −$74 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $202 −$191 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$45 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$43 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$11 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$40 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$42 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $0 +$39 +7901%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1300 history records