Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a9c…44e2 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-10%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%51W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$21
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -0.4% -9.9% 73% 73% -9.3%
≤30d 63 -0.4% -9.9% 73% 73% -9.3%
≤90d 72 -5.9% -14.9% 67% 67% -20.1%
all 78 -6.0% -15.0% 65% 65% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 65% -19.3%
10% -23.1% 40% -27.0%
15% -30.5% 24% -34.0%
20% -37.4% 12% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses51 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage93d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records