Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1a9b…4137 other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$611 (+28%) realized +$611 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$335
7 days+$462
14 days+$606
30 days+$617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$11
sports 41% +$604
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +12.8% +2.0% 21% 21% +21.6%
≤30d 46 +30.0% +17.7% 28% 28% +28.2%
≤90d 46 +30.0% +17.7% 28% 28% +28.2%
all 46 +30.0% +17.7% 28% 28% +28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 28% +28.2%
10% +6.4% 28% +16.0%
15% -3.9% 28% +4.8%
20% -13.3% 26% -5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +116% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$19 · ×5.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$595
Realized+$611
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions11
Markets (closed)46 / 59
History coverage15d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 41¢ 66¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+62%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$10 -25%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $143 −$13 -9%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$8 -18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 −$48 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 25 $17 −$13 -73%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $66 −$62 -94%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$14 -92%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -76%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $17 +$105 +628%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$23 -76%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$8 -73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$45 +442%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$23 -44%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $117 +$302 +257%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$30 +58%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$333 +650%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$94 +307%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$11 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 1m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $53 3m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 5m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 53m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $52 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 5h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $51 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $49 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 11h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.99 · official $595.19 (match) · 142 history records