Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1a9a…3c1f
crypto · 238 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$74 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$84 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$181
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses64 / 159
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)223 / 238
History coverage161d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 15 History 223 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$69
14 days+$35
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $97 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 13 $145 −$43 -30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -46%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 11 $14 −$11 -79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$23 +1058%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 05 $1 +$8 +761%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 05 $12 +$86 +717%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Jun 01 $7 −$6 -91%
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -63%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 23 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? May 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $4 +$12 +282%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 06 $6 −$3 -52%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $1 +$5 +509%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $4 +$17 +426%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 +$1 +114%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 31% +$105
world 22% +$1
other 22% −$38
finance 12% +$54
economics 8% −$48
sports 4% +$17
tech 1% −$12
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 1h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $67 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 40h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 41h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 42h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 42h
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 42h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $25 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -79.2% -81.2% 0% 0% -44.5%
≤30d 31 +19.0% +7.7% 23% 23% -0.0%
≤90d 93 -16.3% -24.3% 24% 23% -19.2%
all 223 -6.1% -15.1% 29% 26% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 26% -5.4%
10% -23.2% 24% -14.5%
15% -30.6% 22% -22.7%
20% -37.4% 18% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.15 · official $181.15 (match) · 791 history records