Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1a94…822c sports 435 markets active 7h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,458 (-10%) realized −$14,458 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%216W / 217L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days−$607
14 days−$1,792
30 days−$1,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$14,278
other 3% −$198
crypto 0% −$220
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -13.0% -21.3% 54% 54% -20.0%
≤30d 35 -16.5% -24.4% 49% 49% -27.4%
≤90d 264 -60.5% -64.3% 23% 23% -60.1%
all 433 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 50% -18.7%
10% -25.4% 48% -26.5%
15% -32.6% 42% -33.6%
20% -39.2% 36% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$306 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,458
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses216 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 435
History coverage188d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $192 +$68 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$36 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $264 −$261 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $201 −$137 -68%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$287 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $483 −$480 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $151 −$150 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $117 −$115 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$209 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $413 +$127 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $502 +$87 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $555 −$550 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $642 −$635 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $229 +$197 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $357 +$643 +180%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 01 $460 −$455 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $273 −$270 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $204 −$201 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $172 −$170 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 27 $450 −$445 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $41 +$55 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies May 27 $1,350 +$472 +35%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 18 $520 −$516 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Kraken Apr 10 $835 −$835 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 10 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 10 $230 +$198 +86%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $495 +$294 +60%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $500 +$310 +62%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $745 +$482 +65%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $500 +$208 +42%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $500 +$261 +52%
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Apr 08 $470 +$494 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 07 $845 −$845 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $260 −$260 -100%
Blues vs. Avalanche Apr 06 $385 −$385 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $260 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 49¢ $2 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 64¢ $192 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $187 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $264 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $65 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $201 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $303 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 5¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $793 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Qatar BUY 34¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $483 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $151 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $152 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $117 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $714 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 951 history records