Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1a93…c3ea sports 552 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,764 (-3%) realized −$8,476 · open −$288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%255W / 294L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$518per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$4,330est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$2,063
14 days+$82
30 days−$26,943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$14,389
other 14% +$1,601
world 0% +$359
crypto 0% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +19.7% +8.3% 57% 57% +8.1%
≤30d 115 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 38% -47.8%
≤90d 549 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 46% -13.4%
all 549 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 46% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 46% -13.4%
10% -16.4% 46% -21.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 45% -29.2%
20% -31.8% 44% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$530) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$562 vs −$528 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$641
Realized−$8,476
Unrealized−$288
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses255 / 294
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$4,330
Open positions3
Markets (closed)549 / 552
History coverage71d
Avg bet$518
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 42¢ $293 $304 +$11 (+4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $244 $248 +$4 (+2%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 35¢ 8¢ $391 $89 −$303 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $275 +$435 +158%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $248 +$260 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $220 +$279 +127%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $343 −$337 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $235 −$230 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $291 −$285 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $480 +$519 +108%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $423 −$416 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $334 −$328 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $298 +$237 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $250 −$246 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $168 −$165 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $303 +$390 +129%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $343 +$381 +111%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $448 −$440 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $352 +$444 +126%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $89 +$101 +114%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $560 +$292 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $230 −$230 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $354 +$345 +98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $289 −$284 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $349 +$467 +134%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $350 +$277 +79%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $407 −$401 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $235 +$270 +115%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $336 +$489 +146%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $228 +$283 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $199 −$196 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $576 −$570 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $148 +$191 +128%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $401 +$396 +99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $342 −$128 -38%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $187 +$114 +61%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $174 +$190 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$66 +63%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $367 −$367 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $209 −$203 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $317 −$312 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 07 $215 +$311 +144%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $209 −$205 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 03 $298 −$294 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 03 $195 −$192 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 03 $607 −$600 -99%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 03 $602 −$591 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 03 $296 −$292 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $196 −$193 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 03 $199 +$328 +165%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 03 $203 +$205 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 22¢ $134 42m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 51¢ $264 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $298 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $249 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $710 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $275 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $508 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $80 12h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $93 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $22 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $19 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $53 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $264 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $235 17h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $248 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $291 29h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 34h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $120 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $418 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $100 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $234 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $640.58 · official $640.58 (match) · 1695 history records