Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a92…df21 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$36 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%5W / 25L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$215
14 days+$215
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$19
crypto 36% +$189
other 8% +$21
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +38.3% +25.1% 21% 16% +28.1%
≤30d 19 +38.3% +25.1% 21% 16% +28.1%
≤90d 30 -9.0% -17.7% 17% 10% +7.6%
all 30 -9.0% -17.7% 17% 10% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 10% +7.6%
10% -25.5% 10% -2.7%
15% -32.7% 10% -12.1%
20% -39.3% 10% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -93% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$8 · ×10.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses5 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage84d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $320 +$291 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 +$89 +1722%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 +$18 +406%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 05 $655 +$19 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 59 million views on day 3 Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 68 and 71 million views on day 3 Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 71 million or more views on day 3? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 56 million views on day 3? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Ordinary - Alex Warren" be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Opalite - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Unique - P1Harmony" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week o Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "They Will Kill You" be the highest grossing movie this weekend? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $320 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 46h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 57¢ $94 47h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 47h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 95¢ $674 71d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 92¢ $655 82d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 59 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 68 and 71 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get 71 million or more views on day 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 56 million views on day 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 83d
Will "Ordinary - Alex Warren" be the Billboard #1 song for the week of BUY Yes 1¢ $1 83d
Will "Opalite - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard #1 song for the week of BUY Yes 1¢ $1 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records