Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a92…35bc weather 796 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$137 (+1%) realized +$187 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%231W / 545L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$271
14 days+$280
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$77
sports 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +9.7% -0.7% 24% 24% +17.8%
≤30d 365 -7.7% -16.5% 24% 24% -8.0%
≤90d 776 -5.8% -14.8% 30% 29% -8.4%
all 776 -5.8% -14.8% 30% 29% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 29% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 27% -17.2%
15% -30.4% 25% -25.2%
20% -37.2% 23% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses231 / 545
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)776 / 796
History coverage84d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 776 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? Yes 42¢ 30¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? No 33¢ 14¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Yes 30¢ 13¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? No 18¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 24? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+160%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 24? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 24? No 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 24? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 422 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$63 +2634%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 +$15 +62%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 +$7 +875%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 +$12 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $75 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$25 +464%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $44 −$21 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 +$31 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$30 +588%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 +$13 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$27 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$31 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 23? Jun 23 $0 $0 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 −$7 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 23? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $70 +$19 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $38 +$16 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $27 +$55 +202%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 +$23 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$31 +161%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 0m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 1m
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL No 20¢ $4 20m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 30m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 18¢ $4 46m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY No 33¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.39 · official $98.73 · 3102 history records