Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a8f…a578 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%32W / 66L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$10
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$8
other 18% −$4
finance 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% +$53
politics 4% +$1
economics 1% −$9
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 +8.2% -2.1% 65% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 33 +4.8% -5.2% 48% 3% -9.7%
all 98 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 2% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 2% -18.0%
15% -24.7% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage331d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $158 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $585 +$1 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $339 +$2 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $583 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $546 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $590 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $276 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $583 +$5 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $547 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $581 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $372 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $416 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $579 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $718 +$14 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $222 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $450 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $307 −$35 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $4 $0 +3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $39 −$1 -2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 22 $661 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 22 $27 −$7 -25%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 21 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $671 $0 +0%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 20 $178 −$1 -1%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Mar 19 $80 +$3 +3%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 15 $163 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 15 $19 $0 -0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 14 $175 +$54 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $174 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $177 −$1 -1%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 10 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $8 $0 -5%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $36 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $67 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $102 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $158 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $211 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $105 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $91 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $87 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $93 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $357 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $207 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $21 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $174 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $219 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $78 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $108 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $73 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $244 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $81 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.36 · official $66.66 (match) · 410 history records