Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a8f…c297 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$471 (-4%) realized −$457 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,005
7 days+$207
14 days−$583
30 days−$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$563
politics 3% −$19
other 2% −$2
world 0% −$14
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -5.5%
≤30d 48 -9.1% -17.8% 54% 54% -14.8%
≤90d 48 -9.1% -17.8% 54% 54% -14.8%
all 48 -9.1% -17.8% 54% 54% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 54% -14.8%
10% -25.6% 52% -23.0%
15% -32.8% 50% -30.4%
20% -39.4% 38% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$178 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,166
Realized−$457
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions13
Markets (closed)48 / 62
History coverage11d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ 62¢ $440 $437 −$3 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 55¢ 55¢ $305 $302 −$3 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $300 $281 −$19 (-6%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 6¢ 12¢ $8 $17 +$8 (+100%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1,686 +$735 +44%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $395 +$277 +70%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $525 −$520 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $350 +$289 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $724 +$468 +65%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,041 −$1,030 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $567 −$560 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $55 +$37 +66%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $46 +$37 +79%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $50 +$38 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $98 +$56 +58%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $45 +$37 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $95 +$57 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $64 +$28 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $114 +$89 +78%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $81 +$59 +73%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $39 +$29 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $85 −$84 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $46 −$45 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $42 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $44 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $42 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $44 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $34 −$34 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $44 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $66 +$67 +101%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$35 +101%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $106 +$87 +82%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $38 +$38 +102%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $77 +$58 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $111 +$56 +50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $307 −$304 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $251 +$55 +22%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $180 −$178 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $362 +$160 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $442 +$173 +39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $151 +$52 +34%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $242 −$239 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $134 +$150 +112%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $373 +$173 +46%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $252 −$249 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $205 −$202 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $105 −$104 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $445 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 55¢ $309 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $414 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $1,272 22h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $46 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $7 47h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $525 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $395 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $350 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $45 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 12¢ $63 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $724 5d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $1,041 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $0 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $0 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $60 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $0 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $1 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $1 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $2 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $0 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166.32 · official $1,166.32 (match) · 174 history records