Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a8f…7d3e crypto 338 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162 (-11%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%144W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day145.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$245
14 days−$204
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 -21.7% -29.1% 38% 26% -32.9%
≤30d 338 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 30% -22.0%
≤90d 338 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 30% -22.0%
all 338 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 30% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 30% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 22% -29.4%
15% -39.5% 17% -36.3%
20% -45.5% 14% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses144 / 194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)338 / 338
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day145.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 338 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 8PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$10 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$11 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$23 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$27 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1923 history records