Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a8f…a29e sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$168 (-14%) realized −$193 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$132
14 days−$181
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$70
other 18% −$55
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 35% -23.6%
≤30d 38 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 37% -23.4%
≤90d 38 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 37% -23.4%
all 38 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 37% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 37% -23.4%
10% -23.8% 37% -30.7%
15% -31.2% 32% -37.4%
20% -37.9% 24% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage12d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 36¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $101 +$6 +6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 +$6 +38%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$89 +298%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +127%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$1 -6%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $50 −$2 -5%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$19 +37%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$11 -70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $36 +$33 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 −$2 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$13 +64%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +160%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 +$33 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $46 +$11 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $61 −$39 -64%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $40 −$1 -4%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $104 −$65 -63%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $31 +$38 +123%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 0m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 0m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 36¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $107 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 76¢ $16 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 86¢ $119 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 21¢ $30 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 35¢ $19 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $20 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 69¢ $48 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $50 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $10 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 44¢ $34 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 47¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.29 · official $25.29 (match) · 102 history records