Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a8c…c1c4 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-27%) realized −$70 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$19
sports 42% −$52
culture 5% +$3
politics 2% −$5
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -51.8% -56.4% 25% 25% -78.2%
all 29 -31.0% -37.6% 31% 31% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 31% -43.6%
10% -43.6% 31% -49.0%
15% -49.0% 28% -53.9%
20% -54.0% 24% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage234d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $32 −$8 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win the Super Bowl? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 18 $5 +$6 +113%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jan 07 $3 +$6 +196%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? Dec 21 $5 +$3 +70%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. UCLA Nov 09 $11 −$6 -58%
Wake Forest vs. Virginia Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Raiders vs. Broncos Nov 07 $14 −$1 -5%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $6 +$3 +47%
Sharks vs. Kraken Nov 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Broncos vs. Texans Nov 02 $4 +$3 +74%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $8 +$23 +293%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $5 +$1 +25%
Colorado vs. Utah Oct 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 17d
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P BUY Yes 60¢ $5 64d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 65d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 65d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 65d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes $2 80d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 99d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 21¢ $20 127d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 33¢ $3 127d
Will the Denver Broncos win the Super Bowl? BUY Yes $2 141d
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 142d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $11 148d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 10¢ $3 149d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 16¢ $3 149d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 63¢ $5 149d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 47¢ $5 149d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 160d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 163d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 163d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 163d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 163d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 177d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 177d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 196d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $15 199d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.02 · official $79.02 (match) · 277 history records