Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a87…4e00 crypto 109 markets active 4h ago coverage 116d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$143,818 (-26%) realized −$143,141 · open −$677
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%69W / 235L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,045per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$30,775
sports 15% +$22,069
other 10% +$11,602
world 1% +$5,499
finance 1% −$2,758
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -97.7% -97.9% 1% 1% -92.0%
≤30d 199 -97.7% -97.9% 1% 1% -92.0%
≤90d 218 -81.7% -83.4% 3% 3% -77.1%
all 304 -57.0% -61.1% 23% 5% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.1% 5% -38.3%
10% -64.9% 5% -44.2%
15% ← realistic here -68.3% 5% -49.6%
20% -71.4% 5% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$3,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
29.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,391 vs −$1,536 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,678
Realized−$143,141
Unrealized−$677
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses69 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions2
Markets (closed)304 / 109
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$5,045
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,200 $1,100 −$100 (-8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 8¢ $1,155 $577 −$577 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 232 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will US Cremonese vs. Juventus end in a draw? Jun 17 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 17 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Spread: Rams (-6.5) Jun 17 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Spread: Texas A&M (-6.5) Jun 17 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1,983 −$1,983 -100%
Will Ourense CF win on 2025-10-28? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Mariners vs. Tigers Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Jun 17 $4,878 −$4,878 -100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Jun 17 $4,050 −$4,050 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Zellnor Myrie finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Demo Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Feyenoord win on 2025-10-02? Jun 17 $728 −$728 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pisa SC vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Jun 17 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-05? Jun 17 $833 −$833 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Sevilla end in a draw? Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Seahawks vs. Jaguars Jun 17 $3,920 −$3,920 -100%
MLS: Will Portland beat Real Salt Lake? Jun 17 $2,480 −$2,480 -100%
European Open: Raphael Collignon vs Francisco Comesana Jun 17 $801 −$801 -100%
Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? Jun 17 $2,162 −$2,162 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Jun 17 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18? Jun 17 $420 −$420 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-10-28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 17 $1,232 −$1,232 -100%
Will UD Maracena vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-06? Jun 17 $566 −$566 -100%
MLS: Will Portland beat Minnesota? Jun 17 $1,048 −$1,048 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Getafe vs. Girona end in a draw? Jun 17 $179 −$179 -100%
Will FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $2,511 −$2,511 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2025-10-28? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Real Betis vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11,081 −$11,081 -100%
Will Atalanta vs. Club Brugge end in a draw? Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-06? Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves end in a draw? Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $968 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $159 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $12 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $12 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,628 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,236 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $23,586 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $8,663 6h
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 5¢ $393 39d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 5¢ $248 39d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 5¢ $316 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $883 39d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $463 45d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $35 45d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 45d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 45d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $246 45d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 45d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $923 45d
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,761 45d
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 45d
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 45d
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 45d
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 45d
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 45d
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,677.50 · official $1,677.50 (match) · 3500 history records